Forecasting Tourism Revenue in Bangladesh Using ARIMA Approach: The Case of Bangladesh

Adib Ahmed, Sakib Bin Amin and Abdul M Khan

The Tourism industry is considered as one of the fastest-growing industries in the world. The main objective of this paper is to provide a short-run estimation of tourism receipts for Bangladesh. Considering the annual tourist receipts from 1973 to 2017 and following the Box-Jenkins approach, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been applied for the short-term forecasting of tourism receipts in Bangladesh. Different ARIMA models are analyzed, and the best fitting ARIMA (0,1,1) model is constructed based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Our results reveal that a 76% increase in tourism receipts in 2021 than in 2017 and a 188%increase in 2025.