Group Polarization, Transition Points and Coherent Market Model

Maciej Ciołek

This article presents an alternative sociodynamic non-linear model of a stock market price changes that describes market phases in a more precise manner than Coherent Market Model. Most importantly it allows, with high accuracy, identification of transition points between phases. The model is based on a theory of social psychology, including in particular the phenomenon of group polarization that provides an explanation of slumps in the stock market. In opposition to the Coherent Market Hypothesis it includes the market phase, which remained unnoticed by T. Vaga. Such periods are characterized by even higher annual expected return rates and better risk-reward ratio.

DOI : https://doi.org/10.21102/irbrp.2017.09.132.03